I started this article last year, but my laptop with all the data died, and wasn't backed up, so it's a bit out of date, but still relevant.
Intro
As an aspiring professional in trail running, I think one of the hardest things is knowing what you are worth, and how to get started with sponsorships and making money from the sport. In this article I look at the correlation between index scores and social media following, a rough estimate to an athletes value, and I'll also share my experience so far in trying to land paying sponsors (including figures that I have received so far) and experience of agency vs "organic" deals.
Index (Finish Times) Vs Following
I'd like to think that contracts from brands are awarded to the best athletes, based on their performances. I assumed that how well those athletes can market themselves via media platforms would be the second determinant of securing contracts. Therefore I started looking into whether there was a correlation between the top rated runners in trail running and the number of followers they had on social media. I decided to use the ITRA index over the UTMB index as I feel it is less biased (given it doesn't have it's own race series that it scores itself). I decided to use Instagram as the platform for gauging the athletes "following" as it is the most commonly used one for advertising athletes and brands. I took the top 400 ITRA index's for male athletes at the end of 2023, then looked them up individually on Instagram, which was a time consuming exercise. As such I've only done it for male athletes at this point. As I mentioned I lost the data but fortunately took a photo on my phone of the graph. You might notice that Killian is not on the graph, and that is simply because his following is so large at 1.7 Million that all the other data points were too squashed together for a useful visual representation.
There was a positive correlation between index score and and following, albeit a weak one. Athletes with a following over 50,000 (which in the sport of trail running is a lot) have largely all had good results at one or two race series...UTMB (including Western States) and the Golden Trail Series. They also have a strong "Instagram game" (they post regularly with quality content). There were exceptions on the far right of the graph with athletes around the 940 index point, only having around 1,000 followers on Instagram. These were predominantly African athletes at the top of the Golden Trail Series, but who had posted less content. The high ranking Chinese athletes are missing entirely from the graph as none were using Instagram at the time.
There were exceptions in the other direction, of a high following (over 50K) but a relatively lower index (around 870) where their "Instagram game" has elevated their following higher than the average. They are still very good athletes, so not to be labeled as just influencers.
How much are followers worth?
Although I don't like the idea that following can increase an athletes value more than their performance, I next looked at how much followers are "worth". Trailrunner magazine recently released an article titled "Where is the line between athlete and influencer". In the article Grayson Murphy the US Mountain and Trail runner is quoted as considering switching to influencing after discovering a discrepancy in pay between athlete and "content creators" (assuming this is with her Sponsor Saucony).
These figures are taken from Impact.com on what influencers are earning.
They define a "Micro influencer" as someone with 15-75,000 followers on Instagram and can charge $2,000-$8,000 for a sponsored post!
For a "Macro Influencer" (250,000-1 Million followers) this can be negotiated $20,000-$50,000 per sponsored post. I'm guessing a "standard" influencer fills in the gap between 75,000 and 250,000 followers.
Tabulated this means that as the number of followers increases, the value per post per follower decreases. I assume that this is likely due to a reduced "engagement" and suitability of those followers as their numbers increase.
These figures seem high, but then I applied it to my race invite to TransLantau in 2023. If I take the $0.13 value and multiplied it by my following (1,766 at the time) I get $235.47 for doing a post.
The organizers paid for my flight, and provided a race hotel for 4 nights in exchange for doing a total of 5 posts. This equated to a saving/value of approximately $1,144.00 to me, which per post is $229! So not far off at all as an estimate of value.
The reality is even if you are a top runner, brands want to see evidence that you can sell their products. Ultimately athlete salaries are coming out of marketing budgets. Although I had a terrible season in 2024 in terms of results, I did make an effort to post regularly on Instagram, and my following still increased by over 500. I therefore consider it a necessary evil. The app itself is addictive, and it takes a fair amount of time and effort to make engaging content, in an already saturated/competitive environment. However assuming those 500 followers are now worth around $50 per post now, then it's worth the effort. I much prefer the uptick in following that occurs "naturally" after a good race performance which for me has been up to 300.
On the other hand there is an argument questioning whether a 7 second reel or photo with a pithy caption on Instagram actually creates a call to action for followers to buy products. Friends (who are avid trail runners) have admitted that they have deleted the Instagram app, as it is a waste of time. There also seems to be a trend of brands and athletes investing more in long form content such as YouTube, as this has a greater impact on consumer choice.
How much are you worth?
Toms Algorithm for Trail Totty (TATT)
Please note that the equation below is a very rough estimate that only applies to a relatively narrow range of athletes (In this case males with an index of over 850, who fall into the level 1 categorization below) .
Also keep in mind that where there is not a defined market rate, you are only worth what some one else/a brand is willing to pay you.
((Number of Instagram followers/10) X ( ITRA Index X 2)) / Age
For me at end of 2023: ((1766/10) x (878x2))/32 = €9,690.00
For me at end of 2024: ((2295/10) x (877x2))/33 = €12,198.00
I am justifying the above calculations from offers that I have received in the last year or so. My first offer came from VIBRAM for €10,000 per year, as a retainer for a 2-3 years. Of note, they weren't concerned with social media requirements saying that performance was the key consideration.
I also had an offer from Kiprun of £12,000 + £3,000 expenses, which came through Santara group agency (subject to 20% commission/fee), and an offer of €8,000+€2,000 directly from Altra.
I have heard David Roche, as well as other people "in the know" on podcast's define the three major levels of athlete contracts as:
Level 1: $0-10,000. Essentially retainers, maybe just kit and bonuses. Athletes rely heavily on other sources of income, and bonuses to support themselves. May define themselves as professional to sooth their ego's...ouch. This is the level that most elite/pro athletes are at, and brands can be quite "ruthless" with them. I have friends who have been in the sport longer than me, at a similar performance level or higher, who had contracts towards the bottom end of this level, and often weren't paid on time!
If I had to estimate an index score, for male athletes it would be around 860-880.
Level 2: Around $30,000. Someone getting consistent and good results at top races. Capable of winning a golden ticket to Western States (DR). May be able to train full time, but may have a side hustle like coaching.
If I had to estimate an index score, it would be for male athletes of around 880-900.
Level 3: Around $150,000. Winning big races like Western States, World Championships, or top 3 at world championship series finals like UTMB or Golden Trail. I think this number can vary massively and doesn't necessarily correlate to a high performance index. A particular event that holds larger significance in the sport or media (FKT's like Tara Dower or Imo Boddy, 6 day record, Hardest Geezer, Jasmin Paris etc) could also lead to large deals.
Examples I have heard for level 3 is a winner of Western States base rate was £180,000 and that Tara Dower's contract with Altra after setting the FKT on the Appalachian trail is somewhere between $150,000-$250,000. There were rumors (from El Laboratorio de Juan, a shoe reviewing account) of Courtney being offered 1 million from Nike, but she has recently signed a 5 year deal to stay with Salomon.
If I had to estimate an index score, it would be for male athletes around 900 and above.
I would also add, that at this level and given the range that can be negotiated, an experienced agent may be beneficial here.
The rise of the agent. Should you get one, or make your own deals?
After UTMB in 2023 I decided to start working with Capture Connect (Hannah Tyldesley) to try and secure a deal. She had set me up with a photoshoot before UTMB with Asics/Sportshoes (£500 for half day). I also managed to meet Laurent Ardito, the Asics team manager through Julia Davis that same day, so felt like I was starting to build a relationship (and importantly loved the shoes). This is when I also got talking to Gediminus Grinius the athlete manager for Vibram, who made me an offer. I was probably too honest with him, asking for some time to reply to him as I wanted to hear back from Hannah and Asics. The deal from GG was almost immediately rescinded.
After my win at TransLantau 100M, I'm sad to say my mindset was shifting to that of expecting an offer from someone. Some offers of free shoes came in from Salomon, Altra etc but nothing more than that. At the same time Santara Group contacted me offering to represent me. I had been following them for sometime already, as they represent a number of the best triathletes (not because Hannah wasn't good), and so I took the opportunity to switch agents.
There was period of a month or two of great excitement, with New Balance, and even Nike showing potential interest, but ultimately nothing came of it. I suspect that the price Santara were asking of £20,000, was too high in my case. Considering that Santara take a 20% commission, it might suggest that if you are only a "level 1" athlete (as defined above), it's not really worth their time hashing out a contract on your behalf?
An offer did eventually come through Santara from Kiprun in June, but I soon discovered the next issue of working with an agent....communication. With Vibram I sent a 1 page CV to GG, he sent me a voice note back and in the space of a few days we had a proposal worked out between us.
With Kiprun all communication had to go through Santara, which meant a very drawn out and laborious process. I used the sizing chart on their website, which led to the wrong size samples being sent (too small). When I asked for a size up, they sent me the same size again (lost in translation?). When I asked if I could try a prototype instead, they sent me the women's size, which were even smaller. When they eventually sent me the correct size prototypes, it got held up in customs (they also sent me Blandines shoes for UTMB). I was told repeatedly that they had arrived (in Tignes) but it wasn't until after 3 visits to collect them, that I found out they hadn't arrived at all. Each time it would take a week for a message to be relayed, and so it wasn't until September, 3 months later, that I actually received the correct size shoes.
I'm not entirely sure what happened next, as the agent brokering the deal was let go the same weekend I said I wanted to sign with Kiprun. However when the deal was picked up by Santara, it turned out there was a "funding issue" between Kiprun UK and Kiprun Global.
It was also interesting to hear Corrine Malcolm make the point that for a "level 1" athlete a contract can actually be quite restricting for the amount of support they offer.
3 of the 4 offers I have been lucky enough to receive have come about via "organic" means, or simply talking to people. I think it's easy to get caught up in the fictitious "alter reality" of social media, and forget that it's all about people and "who you know". Weirdly 3 of the offers have specifically come from people I've met at Chiang Mai by UTMB race week....so maybe get yourself out to that race.
My advice would therefore be that you probably don't want or actually need an agent until you are at "level 2" status and where an agents input could have a far more significant impact on your salary.
Don't ask Don't Get....stick to your guns
As the dust settles on contract season 2025, I see many athletes at a similar level as me, trying to negotiate or renegotiate deals. Some brands say yes and some say no. In my experience they more often say no. Naak offered me a place on their "pro team" at the end of 2023 so assuming pro meant money, I asked for some. In business terms they said they didn't think I was worth it " budgets are really tight right now, I'll see what we can do". I was kicking myself in 2024 as free Naak products would have been a real plus. I'm sticking to my guns with another nutrition provider so remain hopeful that something will come from it, if not then I'll keep asking elsewhere...don't sell out for a few free gels!
This is why this information and discussing athlete contracts (and numbers) like it's the norm, is important for the development of the sport at the professional level. The more athletes can establish a market rate, then the less they will be taken advantage of by brands. Hopefully more guidance will come from the PTRA in this area in the following years.
Summary/ Tips & Considerations
Performance is the most important determinant for athletes seeking paid contracts.
Regular posting is important. Long form content may have a greater impact. Either way demonstrate that you can sell product.
Who you know can be equally as important as the above. Make friends with fellow competitors rather than just solicit the established athlete and brand managers, you never know if they'll become useful contacts.
Have an idea of what you are worth to a brand, and ask for more than that. If a brand says that they won't offer you what you think you are worth, then walk away.
Have an easy to read 1 page document/CV you can send to brands. A page with your race results, and schedule is ok, but you need to stand out and demonstrate an ability to do something different or under your own steam. For example build worked financial proposals to do a project, training camp, documentary series etc. and look at how it will directly improve sales.
Low value contracts may add a lot of work and restrictions to an athlete for very little reward. Mario Olmedo left Scarpa this year for this reason ("Bravo Mario"). Make sure that you like the shoes/kit and what a brand stands for. Francesco Puppi's move from Nike was an interesting example of how their values did not align.
Be patient if you can. Wait for a brand you really want.
Athletes need to normalize talking about contracts and values, and ask for contracts without NDA's or less strict NDA's such as Tara Dower being able to give "ball park" figures with Altra. If you can share details about financial details and offers then do.
This sport is physically hard. I'd consider myself lucky to make it to 10 years competing at this level. Don't destroy your health and enjoyment for poor pay. Also consider asking for other benefits such as health insurance, or contracts that still pay you when you are injured, pregnant, unwell etc.
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